12 events, issues that will shape 2014

    
As Nigeria moves into what many have said could be a decisive year for the unity of the country, SIMON EJEMBI highlights some of the key moments expected in the year

The year 2013 is gone. It was an eventful year – of scandals and open letters. It was the year of the power sector privatisation and the ‘great merger’. It was the year the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressives Congress and the All Nigeria’s Peoples Party merged to form the All Progressives Congress and (attempt to) throw a spanner in the works of the Peoples Democratic Party. Yes, 2013 was an eventful year, but it is gone and 2014 is here.

With so much brewing on the political scene and Boko Haram still roaring now and then, it’s hard to predict how the year will end. More so, with the likelihood that a plane could suddenly fall out the sky as has been the case in the last two years. However, from the signals spotted in 2013 and the ‘events schedule’ for 2013, the following are expected to shape 2014.

1. National Conference

Since 1999, there have been calls for the convocation of a sovereign national conference, a gathering of Nigerians from across the country to determine its fate. The calls failed to yield any result until, well, now. The national political reform conference organised in 2005 by the Olusegun Obasanjo administration failed as a result of Obasanjo’s alleged third term agenda and an apparent decision by delegates from the South-South and their counterparts from the North to disagree on virtually everything. Subsequently, the calls for the conference were subdued. However, in 2013, President Goodluck Jonathan surprised many when he announced that a national conference would be held. Since the announcement, many have discovered that the conference, once widely supported, is no longer considered the ultimate solution to the growing divisions in the country. Nevertheless, the Presidency says it would be held early 2014. Whatever time it is held, the conference is bound to have a huge impact on 2014 and on the country. In his ‘infamous’ open letter to Jonathan, Obasanjo wrote of the conference, “Your later-day conversion into National Conference is fraught with danger of disunity, confusion and chaos if not well handled.” However, it turns out, the conference remains one of the major events that will shape 2014.

2. Passage of the 2014 budget

When it comes to the passing of the country’s budget, there is always one controversy or the other. In the last two years, the National Assembly has not been satisfied with the implementation of the budget and economists have not been happy with parts of it. Even the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Governor, Mallam Lamido Sanusi, feels it should have more allocations for capital expenditure, but recurrent expenditure has continued to increase; and is set to rise if the 2014 budget proposal is passed as it is. In addition to these shortcomings, increasing animosity between the Executive and the legislature, particularly the House of Representatives, means ‘sparks’ will fly before the budget is finally passed. A major indicator was when the Minister of Finance, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala, presented the budget proposal to the Reps. They sent her away after a heated exchange with 50 questions to answer. That appears to be just the beginning.

3. The exit of Mallam Lamido Sanusi

Many in the banking industry heaved a sigh of relief when Dr. Chukwuma Soludo was denied a second term as the Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria and the Managing Director, First Bank of Nigeria Plc (at the time), a certain Mallam Lamido Sanusi, was appointed to replace him. While some where happy for the right reasons others were happy that the man who had sent them chasing N25bn capitalisation, failure of which caused some of them to merge their banks with others, would trouble them no more. Few months and several failed stress tests later, smiles disappeared from a few faces as Sanusi fired number of  bank bosses in a reform that would leave people, who once controlled empires to face the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. The reforms aimed at strengthening the banking sector have continued more recently with the decision to increase the Cash Reserve Requirement of banks to 50 per cent and the CBN maintaining a monetary tightening stance. Beyond the reforms and the fallout, Sanusi has courted controversy and conflict with his bold pronouncements. He has been in conflict with members of the National Assembly more than once. It was so bad that the lawmakers considered stripping the CBN of its autonomy. In 2012, he got labour leaders angry when he reportedly urged the government to fire 50 per cent of civil servants. He was in the news recently for accusing the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation of failing to remit funds to the government. After years of controversy and progress, his tenure ends in June and he has made it clear that he is not interested in a second term. For those eager to see his back, it is time to heave a sigh of relief once more. But for others, who believe that the banking industry and the economy have benefitted from his policy, his exit and the choice of who replaces him, would determine which direction the country’s fiscal policy takes.

4. Elections in Osun and Ekiti states

The appointment of Prof. AttahiruJega as the Chairman, Independent National Electoral Commission, ahead of the 2011 general elections was accepted by several stakeholders. The general elections, which he guided INEC to conduct, were also accepted as a fair attempt by many. Two years later, one shambolic election in Anambra State appears to have changed the perception of many about him. Calls for his resignation or removal were rife in some sectors, but he survived. In 2014, governorship elections will be held in Osun and Ekiti states. Both elections are vital in more than one way. For one, they will be one last tests for INEC ahead of the 2015 elections. On the other hand, they will provide an avenue for the All Progressives Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party to battle for control of the South-West. The outcome is bound to lead to more than just court cases. They could lead to the exit of Jega or political upheavals. And more.

5. Centenary celebrations

In 2013, news broke that the Federal Government had ordered gold-plated, Coat of Arms-inscribed iPhones as gift items ahead of the country’s centenary celebrations. With the government already considered wasteful by many Nigerians, the social media and opinion sections of several newspapers were filled with comments and articles reflecting the disappointment of the electorate. Even though the government denied the report and the source also recanted his claims, the centenary celebrations, which will be held in 2014, remains a controversial topic. And it will surely affect how the year turns out. Already, beyond urging the government to avoid wasting more resources to celebrate looth anniversary of the amalgamation of the North and South in 1914, some have argued that instead of celebrating, Nigeria should be considering undoing the actions of colonial masters long dead.

6. APC/PDP tussle and the House of Reps

The emergence of the All Progressives Congress has presented the PDP with what appears to be its biggest challenge in years. Governors and lawmakers elected under the PDP platform have defected to the APC at an unprecedented rate. As it stands, the APC now has the majority of members in the House. Not ready to lose control, the PDP is making efforts through the court to have the seats of Reps that have defected declared vacant, but if that fails, the APC will in 2014 have to produce the key officers of the House. Should that happen, permutations in the National Assembly and nationwide politically will take a new direction. Beyond the effect of the tussle in legislature and in the states, reports that the likes of former Vice-President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, could join the APC in 2014 indicate that the tussle is set to continue.

7. Sports

Sports have always been a unifying factor, especially football. This year, what is considered to be the biggest ‘show’ on earth – the FIFA World Cup – will take place in Brazil. And Nigeria qualified for the tourney. Preparations for the tournament and the performance of the Super Eagles in the tournament will do more than determine the fate of Head Coach, Stephen Keshi, and his players. Having emerged victorious in the Africa Cup of Nations, there is hope that the country will surpass its woeful performance at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.

8. Government’s automotive policy

A new national automotive policy announced last year by the Minister of Industry, Trade, and Investment, Mr. Olusegun Aganga, is expected to take effect in 2014 and it is expected to be a factor in the year.

This is because car buyers will be made to pay more. The impact of such a development, according to some could even extend to transport fares.

Under the policy, duties on both new and used cars were upwardly reviewed to 70 per cent (35 per cent levy and 35 per cent duty), from the previous 20 per cent flat rate. Duty for fully built buses meant for commercial purposes will now be 35 per cent instead of the previous 10 per cent duty.

9. Voter registration

In November, INEC Chairman, Jega, said there would be no new voter registration for the 2015 general elections because the commission had no money and facilities to do that.

However, the high number of names said to have been missing in voter registers during the Anambra State governorship elections and their role in the low turnout for the supplementary elections, makes the issue of voter registration a major one in 2014 – ahead of 2015 general elections.

10. Oil theft and dwindling national revenue

Oil theft remains a major challenge in Nigeria due to the country’s reliance on oil revenue. Increased oil theft and bunkering often affects the country’s revenue and power generation. Gas shortage at power plants has often been attributed to the activities of pipeline vandals. In 2013, the CBN governor accused the NNPC of failing to remit billions to the government. Though he later reduced the figures, this issue is not going away anytime soon.

11. Jonathan’s ambition

Some political analysts believe that President Goodluck Jonathan could shock the opposition by opting out of the 2015 race, but many others believe it is only a matter of time before he declares his intention. Many believe the majority of the president’s actions are calculated to make his second term ambition a reality. Whatever, the President decides, it will have a huge impact on the year.

12.  Boko Haram, insecurity

The activities of Boko Haram remain a threat with the once-thought-to-be-dead Shekau releasing video recordings once more. As the country navigates what is believed to be a decisive year ahead of 2015, the terrorist group and other issues of security and how the country handles them will be vital, considering the prediction that the country will disintegrate in 2015.

Copyright PUNCH.