House of Reps in season of defections

In this piece, JOHN AMEH examines the defection drama unfolding in the House of Representatives and submits that it is driven basically by selfish motives

The House of Representatives is always replete with drama. The drama at hand in the House is the leadership tussle between members of the two major political parties in the country – the Peoples Democratic Party and the All Progressives Congress. Few weeks back, there was jubilation in the camp of the APC which claimed that it had the majority of members in the House over the PDP. But today, the table appears to have turned; the PDP seems to be back in the saddle as the majority party again.

The House has 360 members and the rules provide that the political party with the highest number of members should produce personalities to hold key leadership positions. This has been the reason why the PDP has dominated the leadership of the House since 1999 when the country returned to democratic governance.

The PDP had about 208 members at the inauguration of the 7th House on June 6, 2011. The defunct Action Congress of Nigeria followed in membership number with about 70 members, the defunct Congress for Progressive Change was next with over 40 members and other parties such as the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party followed in the pecking order.

With the number, it seemed easier for the PDP to take the key leadership positions such as the speaker, deputy speaker, majority leader, chief whip, deputy majority leader and deputy majority whip. On the other hand, the ACN, CPC and ANPP produced candidates for the minority leadership positions.

But there is a new argument today. It states that the positions of the speaker and deputy speaker do not have to go to the PDP because it controls more members since it should be a “joint project of all members of the House” to produce candidates for these two offices.

The ongoing realignment of political forces in the country since 2013 and the factional crisis in the PDP seem to show that it is only a matter of time before the party’s easy ride would be threatened. The fusion of the ACN, CPC and ANPP to form one mega political party (ACP) sparked troubles for the PDP in the House. As a result of the merger, the number of APC members rose to 137. In August 2013, the crisis in the PDP further worked in the favour of the APC as five former PDP governors defected to the APC. The governors were Abdulfatai Ahmed (Kwara State); Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano State); Murtala Nyako (Adamawa State); Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers State); and Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto State).

Following in the footsteps of the governors, 37 lawmakers defected to the APC on December 19, 2013.  The development immediately slashed the number of members of the PDP to 171, while the number of APC members rose to 172. As soon as this was achieved, the APC members in the House started making moves to assume leadership of the House. They, however, later opted to slow down till January 2014 when they hoped that up to 40 more PDP members would have joined the APC. The party had projected that by the end of January, it would be the “comfortable majority” with about 212 members and its position as the party with the majority in the House would no longer be in doubt.

It was with this expectation and excitement that the Minority Leader, Mr. Femi Gbajabiamila, compared the situation in the House with the United States experience, where the Democratic Party is in control of government at the federal level, while the minority controls the US’ House.

“We are on the verge of making history in Nigeria. The APC is a party that promises Nigerians change, that change is about to begin with the House of Representatives. The PDP is going to be the minority in the House. That is the case of the US. It is the beauty of democracy. It has happened in the US, why can’t it happen in Nigeria,” Gbajabiamila had said.

But January passed and the APC could not grow its membership figure beyond 172. Although, the lawmakers tried to effect a change of leadership in the last week of January, the move was clogged by a suit that the PDP filed in court restraining the House from changing its leadership. Tempers rose in the House and a near exchange of blows was averted when Gbajabiamila, in an attempt to pass the message that the APC was now the majority party, addressed the Deputy Majority Leader, Mr. Leo Ogor, as the “Deputy Minority Leader!”

A few weeks ago, an attempt by APC members in the House to employ filibuster against the passage of the 2014 budget made appreciable impact on the Federal Government. The national leadership of APC had urged its members in the House to ensure that the 2014 national budget was not passed in the House. However, this did not record the much-expected compliance. While at the Senate, PDP and APC members adequately participated in the second reading of the budget, the APC succeeded in delaying the debate by one week in the House.

The filibuster threat got the Federal Government to act by redeploying the Commissioner of Police, Rivers State Command, Mr. Joseph Mbu. It is generally believed that the political crisis in Rivers State and the alleged involvement of the Federal Government was the reason the APC called for a government shutdown. But the hope of the filibuster succeeding fully may be a dream for now and the APC’s desire to take over the leadership of the House equally hangs in the balance.

On February 11, 2014 another defection gale on the floor of the House negatively altered the calculations of the APC. The party lost five members to the PDP, dropping in numerical strength from 172 to 168.  A pleasantly surprised and resurgent PDP rose to 178 members, thereby reclaiming its majority leadership from the APC.

For keen observers, a message in the ongoing power tussle and realignment is that it is all about who will get what in 2015. It is not really about party ideology or the nation.

Some members simply answer the call of their godfathers or jump on the bandwagon so long as they believe that it will guarantee them a return ticket come 2015.  Take the case of one of the five latest defectors to the PDP, Mr. Umar Bature, from Sokoto State for example. The lawmaker was originally a PDP member and only defected to the APC on December 19, 2013. He was far from completing two months in the APC when he ran back to the PDP again on February 11, 2014.

The same was the case of two other defectors from Kano State, where the governor is an APC member. The action of the Sokoto lawmaker and his colleagues from Kano State is traceable to the recent defection of two political giants in their enclave to the PDP.

In Kano State, a former governor of the state and strong builder of the ANPP and the APC, Mr. Ibrahim Shekarau, defected to the PDP. Shekarau and his successor in office, Kwakwanso, have irreconcilable political differences.

With his defection, some of his lieutenants in the House had to toe his line. In Sokoto State, a former governor, Mr. Attahiru Bafarawa, also joined the PDP. His lieutenants, who were already in APC, are returning to PDP. Another defector, Mr. Ibrahim Shehu-Gusau, is said to be nursing a governorship ambition in Zamfara State.

He believes he has brighter chances in the PDP in a state where the control of the APC’s structure is out of his reach.

However, as the defection gale continues in the House, it is still a game of numbers.  With each twist; Nigerians will have more drama. In fact, if the APC had succeeded in changing the leadership of the House last month, the February 11 defection would have necessitated another change of leadership with the baton returning to the PDP.

What has become clear in the tussle is that whichever way it goes; the two occupants of the contested positions may remain the biggest beneficiaries till 2015 – the Speaker, Mr. Aminu Waziri-Tambuwal, and his Deputy, Mr. Emeka Ihedioha. While the rules of the House require only a “simple majority” to elect the speaker and the deputy speaker, the story changes when it comes to removing them from office. To remove these two important officers, the rules provide for approval by two-third majority, which is 240 out of 360 lawmakers.

This implies that none of the two sides can remove the speaker or the deputy speaker, except they decide to work together. Since there is no indication that the APC and the PDP camps in the House have any desire to work together soon, any plot to remove these two officers will remain a mirage, much to the loss of the APC. So, the PDP benefits in this regard, whether it is in the minority or in the majority.

Currently, Tambuwal and Ihedioha are still PDP members. However, there are insinuations that Tambuwal is standing astride the two camps, regularly checking the mood on either sides, but fraternising more with the APC, while he remains a card-carrying member of the PDP.

He seems to be the smartest one so far, sure of not losing his seat no matter what direction the pendulum swings.

Surely, the wrangling will continue, the defection will be a regular occurrence in the months ahead and the tussle for key positions in the House remains a matter on which the last has not been heard. Time will clear all the fog.

Copyright PUNCH.